Ericsson expects that 5G will reach up to 65% of the world’s population in five years
The number of internet of things (IoT) devices keeps growing every year, and the numbers are always exceeding previous forecasts.
The Ericsson Mobility Report has become a classic in the cellular industry. Published twice a year, it is a comprehensive snapshot of the mobile market, and provides up-to-date forecasts of every sector of cellular connectivity. Ericsson has just released the first report for 2019.
One of the key findings of the report is that sixty-five percent of the world’s population will be on the coverage area of Fifth Generation Cellular networks (5G). Since 5G is just starting to appear in a handful of cities, it is becoming increasingly evident that the expansion of the new cellular technology will happen much faster than 4G (LTE) networks.
Also, the Swedish giant believes that 5G subscription uptake — mobile subscribers switching to 5G — will be faster than for LTE, which has been the fastest subscription uptake so far.
Critical IoT connections will move to 5G
During the past few years, critical and high bandwidth connections have been moving to LTE. Technologies such as factory automation, vehicle communications, robotics, education, and health tech, are now connected to high-speed cellular networks.
LTE is live on 646 networks worldwide. Besides growth in LTE deployments and connections, the LTE technology evolution continues to expand with 299 LTE-Advanced networks worldwide at 1Q 2019.
Another category for cellular connections is Massive IoT. Verticals in this category include utilities with smart metering, healthcare in the form of medical wearables, and transport with tracking sensors. Basically, these connections do not need the low-latency, high-bandwidth, and reliability of broadband LTE or 5G, and are connected by wide-area LTE-M or NB-IoT networks.
What’s more, according to Ericsson’s report, “By the end of 2024, nearly 35 percent of cellular IoT connections will be Broadband IoT, with 4G connecting the majority. When moving to 5G, with higher speed, lower latency and other capabilities, even more advanced use cases can be supported. Throughputs in the tens of Gbps and latency as low as 5ms will be possible.” Those critical connections are the ones that will take advantage of 5G as it becomes available.
Source: Ericsson Mobility Report 2019
Assuming that cellular IoT will represent 20% of the 22.2 billion of the new IoT devices in 2024, over 3 billion of those connections will be on 4G and 5G networks.
Source: Ericsson Mobility Report 2019
Massive increase in using cellular data
Use of cellular data, both from consumers and IoT devices, is skyrocketing, and that puts a lot of pressure on operators and device manufacturers.
In the past two years alone, from 2017 to 2018, mobile data traffic has doubled, from 14 to 28 exabytes per month, including data consumed by smartphones, tablets, and computers connecting to cellular networks. Data traffic also increased on fixed networks (DSL, Cable, and Fiber) but only 37%, from 80 to 110 exabytes per month.
Ericsson estimates that cellular data traffic will reach 131 exabytes per month by 2024, growing at a 30% rate per year.
That’s why the deployment of 5G is critical for the operators. In two years, as data traffic increases, 4G connections cannot handle the demand, especially in countries such as China and Korea. China alone is responsible for over 30% of the current worldwide mobile data traffic, and will consume 30 exabytes per month by 2024.
IoT device manufacturers need to adapt quickly
There are still millions of devices connected via 2G/3G technologies, including SMS, GPRS, EDGE and HSPA. Many new IoT devices will still connect to those networks, mostly because of manufacturers using legacy hardware and software, and keeping costs down.
The IoT industry needs to jump in and start building for the new networks. As the new LTE and 5G chipsets become available, manufacturers need to start testing for faster, and secure connectivity.
Especially in critical applications, where speed and connectivity are paramount, device makers are at risk of facing new competition, especially from the Far East, where adoption of 5G already started and is growing fast.
